Recently I posted an article entitled “Could The United States Federal Government Collapse?” Well, it seems that a distinguished Russian thinker believes it will collapse soon.
Prof. Igor Panarin, 50, is a former KGB analyst, and is Dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s academy for future diplomats. He regularly appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.
He based his predictions on demographic, economic and financial data that he says will trigger a political and societal crisis in the US. He believes that soon, wealthier states will stop sending funds to the Federal Government and secede from the Union. He also predicts that these events will trigger a civil war. He forecasts that the US states will band together along ethnic lines and that foreign nations will wield significant influence in these new confederacies.
His prediction is that California will be the key state in a “California Republic,” comprised of mainly states west of the Rocky Mountains. Texas will be the key state in “The Texas Republic,” which looks like a recreation of the Confederate States of America. He thinks that the states of the Atlantic Seaboard will become another confederation, and the remaining states in the center of the US will become the Central North American Republic. He also believes that Hawaii and Alaska will go independent.
Panarin also ascribes foreign influence to each republic. He predicts European influence in the Atlantic, Mexican influence in the Texas Republic, Canadian influence in the Central North, and Chinese/Japanese influence in California and Hawaii, and Russian influence in Alaska.
I like his notion of the various Confederacies, although I think one of his grouping is inaccurate. For example, he groups Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia, North and South Carolina in the Atlantic Republic. These are states of the old South, and were part of the Confederacy of the 1860s. They have a history of independence and free thought. I believe these three states would ally with the Texas Republic.
I also believe that there could be a fracturing within the Atlantic Republic. Because of the Free State Movement in New Hampshire, I believe that a Maritime Republic could consist of New Hampshire, Vermont, and Maine.
When Panarin predicts civil war resulting from secession, I sadly agree. The US Federal Government will not accept secession from any states, individually or en masse. So, Washington will likely rush troops to the seceding states to try to prevent the inevitable. The fighting may be short-lived, but will likely be intense.
But, an unknown and unpredictable x-factor exists: Would US military personnel make war upon their fellow citizens?
If 1861 is any indication of the future, then I would say that soldiers would fight their own neighbors. But today is not 1861. It’s a coin toss in 2009.
Panarin give his predictions, and the future of America, about a 50/50 shot. Whether you believe the possibility of his predictions or not, you should begin to prepare for a major societal disruption. If the predictions are wrong, you’ve spent some money on preparations that you can consume over time. However, if the predictions are correct, you could be saving your own life.